Bet Exchange News February 2005

In the February issue of Bet Exchange News

Happy New Year and welcome to the first issue of Bet Exchange News in 2005. I'm delighted to welcome more writing talent on board. Miguel is a successful young gambler and a talented writer who also writes for bettingzone.co.uk. Hopefully this is the first in an ongoing series of articles that he will be writing for Bet Exchange News. Miguel was unfortunate to have had the whole of his betting bank tied up in Sporting Options when they ceased trading. In this, his first article he explains the circumstances that led up to him leaving all his money in Sporting Options and the clues which with the benefit of hindsight should have spelt out to him what was going on. Miguel's friend Sporty was a key factor in him bouncing back from this disaster, therefore it is fitting that in this issue we start a short series in which Sporty talks us through his betting life story. Sporty is now a professional on Betfair and has some extraordinary stories to share particularly from the 1980s where some of his betting triumphs can only be described as legendary.

Tom Millard continues his series of fascinating and entertaining articles, this month looking at the way that the nervous specials markets can get carried away with the false impression that insider money is at play. Last month I talked about the way that all my funds were tied up as a result in several long term markets that all came to a head at the same time. Long term betting associate The Shark got in touch expressing surprise that I hadn't made better use of the free credit facilities available by the smart use of credit cards. In a revealing article he gives some valuable tips of how you can help yourself to all the credit you need to fund your long term positions without ever paying a penny in interest.

Finally I have a look at the news that Betfair have signed an exclusive deal to provide a betting platform to customers of internet giant Yahoo! I believe that this could result in all sorts of value betting opportunities that do not currently exist for Betfair customers – all is explained in this article.

My month

Since the last newsletter I had a very enjoyable Christmas and a break from betting, however it didn't take long before it kicked in again with Celebrity Big Brother. The outcome of this series was the biggest shock in the short history of exchange betting on reality TV. What for me was interesting was the extent to which so few of the Betfair forumites saw it coming. I can only think of three people that I would regard as established shrewdies – Freshman, Arbitrage and Budgiebird who even recognised a Bez victory as an outside possibility. Some people on the forum were suggesting that it was due to the forum itself that Kenzie had gone so short, Sinsam was one of them posting the following comment:

“Kenzie was only favourite because a few well respected people on this forum got it wrong.”

Could he be correct in his evaluation? He is not alone in holding this opinion and there could be something in it. With Specials markets there are no statistics or form to go on. It is all subjective and all about perception. The Betfair Specials forum is easily the best place to read detailed, informed arguments and analysis about these markets.

Over the past 18 months or so a number of posters have built up reputations for being knowledgeable and honest. People following the posts of the advice of Clydebank29, Mattiem, Freshman and DJSunset amongst others will have done very nicely. A well argued thread by one or more respected posters will not only influence Betfair users, but it will also influence the odds compilers amongst the various bookmakers who are understood to keep an eye on the forum and to use the Betfair market as a ready made tissue for their own prices.

Towards the end of this series a number of the most respected posters were very confident about Kenzie's chances, DJSunset being particularly vociferous describing him as a 100% certainty. But could this really be the reason why the market went as low as it did? I'm not sure, but just for the fun of it lets assume that this is the case and had it not been for the BF forum Kenzie's price would have been perhaps 1.6. The papers would not have been screaming out that Kenzie was a certainty and John McCririk would not have appeared on the final programme declaring that Kenzie was definitely going to win.

If Kenzie's fans thought there was any chance that he might not win they may well have voted many times and got all their mates to call as well. In reality they were under the impression that he had already won, so they may have got complacent. On the other hand Bez clearly needed all the support he could get and his vote was galvanised. I believe that this may have been a decisive factor that swung the vote in Bez's favour.

Is it possible therefore that the Betfair forum was actually responsible for Bez's win? It's an outrageous and crazy thought but not one that can be dismissed out of hand.

What an extraordinary irony if the forum had actually called it right but in expressing it with such confidence they actually turned the result around.

This result was a major blow for me and was very deflating at the end of a spectacular fortnight. Reading the forum many respected posters who know these markets very well struggled. Perhaps this is a case of it getting more difficult along with most aspects of exchange betting, or perhaps it's a reflection on the fact that the show failed to ignite the public interest, resulting in less ‘mug money' entering the market. I must have been in the minority on this occasion because this series went like a dream for me. I am happy to take some credit for some great calls, but I also got very lucky on occasions. When Germaine walked she was a big red for me, and when Brigitte looked like walking I was looking at losing a massive green. When it became clear that Brigitte was staying I managed to get some more big money on at fantastic odds of 20+ which put me in very good stead when her price came all the way down to 3.3.

Going into the final day I had an enormous green on Kenzie and just a small green on Bez and Brigitte. Throughout the day I backed Bez and Brigitte a bit more, just in case. Thank goodness I did. Just before the announcement was made I could have levelled off my book and been guaranteed a huge result regardless of the outcome in exchange for less than 5% of my green on Kenzie. But I didn't, I greedily hung on to that extra 5% and in so doing threw away a great deal of money. I still did far better than I could have hoped for going into the series, but had I levelled my book I would have made as much on this show in 16 days as I made in ten weeks on BB5 during the summer.

Then again, some people are never happy. If I had levelled my book I would probably sitting here thinking, if only I had risked 10% more of my Kenzie green, my profits would have been doubled! Hindsight – you can't beat it.

Best regards

Mike

Mike Cooksedge
Editor
mike@betexchangenews.com