It’s the grass court tennis season again. Will there be a British winner in Tim Henman? He has never had a better chance. So why is this?

Tennis is a game of skill. What this means is that the fittest athlete in the world who does not regularly play tennis would lose to a 60 year old club player who does play regularly. The athlete has all the physical attributes and should be able to run most shots down but having done so does not then have the skill to return the ball into court to beat his less able but more skillful opponent.

If you play any game of skill that requires sound eye-hand co-ordination, such as tennis, you will sometimes have experienced a wonderful feeling where it all seemed so easy. You were relaxed yet focused, you seemed to know where your opponent was going to hit the ball at all times and were there almost waiting for the ball to arrive to you, you were playing better than ever - you knew you were going to win but were not nervous all, you were happy and thoroughly enjoying the entire experience. Did you notice that all this happened almost automatically, seemingly without you having to make much if any effort, yet there was plenty? This is because your body and mind were in harmony. You were PEAKING!

Whilst no two individuals are exactly the same, studies in sport have shown that we are only able to peak seven times a year and that a peak cannot last longer than seven days. However, either side of a peak you can still maintain a high level of performance but ultimately after a peak there will be a trough where you are exhausted and need a break to recover. We all have finite reserves of energy. Peaking is the mental and physical preparation for a certain time/event where a player wishes to be able to fulfil his/her optimum potential and be in a relaxed yet maximum state of readiness for the ensuing "battle".

Peaking - the tool of champions

Pete Sampras understood the importance of peaking at the right time very well. He knew he was unlikely to win the French Open, so whilst he would compete, he would make no effort to peak, staying relaxed, preserving his energy resources and playing steadily at all times. Of course even at this level he was good enough to beat many opponents, but he never won the French, his target was always Wimbledon. He used to play Queens because it was great grass court practice, but he never cared whether he won. He had some five setters against some really unlikely opponents, where he came close to losing, but he never got stressed about it. Anyone watching may have thought that he had no chance of going on to win Wimbledon, but they were missing the point totally. He did not want to peak at the wrong time, even if that meant losing to someone he should be expected to beat. This strategy worked wonders for Pistol Pete as he won seven out of eight Wimbledon titles between 1993 and 2000.

It is incredibly difficult to peak twice in a short period of time, which explains why it is so difficult for players to win the French Open and Wimbledon. The notable exception to this rule was Bjorn Bjorg who structured his entire year around peaking for these two tournaments. He won the two tournaments a total of 11 times, winning them both in the same year three times, an unbelievable achievement, especially when you consider that the following year he almost did it for a fourth time, just losing out to John McEnroe in a hard fought, four set final.

As he never won a Grand Slam outside of these two events (he didn’t even enter the Australian Open) Borg was clearly structuring his whole year around these events. In managing to peak twice in such a short period of time Borg was a one off, however, even he was human, and the price he appeared to pay was physical and mental exhaustion going into the US Open where despite four appearances in the final he never managed to win. Borg clearly structured his whole year around winning both of these events.

Applying this to Wimbledon

The question that every Brit wants to know is will Tim Henman win Wimbledon? The short answer is that he has the past chance he has ever had. He has shrewdly employed the services of Pete Sampras’ former coach Paul Annacone and has beaten both his main rivals, Roddick and Federer, since Wimbledon last year. He had an extremely good French Open losing in the semi-finals and is coming into this tournament on a high and sounding extremely confident. He said on a recent radio interview that he has reached the semi final of Wimbledon in the past while playing some very ordinary tennis. He clearly thinks he is now playing the best tennis of his career and appears to rate his chances very highly.

Tim Henman is the best British tennis player we have had for generations but he is no Bjorn Borg and I can’t see him peaking twice to win both titles. While it would have been brilliant if he had gone on to win the French Open, his chances at Wimbledon must be improved by his exit at the semi finals stage in Paris. Cynics would point to the way he lost early at Queen’s as proof that he can’t win. Far from it, losing early at Queen’s Club might have done him a favour allowing him time to relax and prepare for the Big One at SW19 beginning next Monday. At Queen’s he lost to Karol Beck who was peaking himself having won the previous week at Surbiton and already having won a round at Queens when he beat Tim Henman. If anyone saw the televised first set of that match you will understand what peaking is all about. In Tim’s first service game he was broken to love with Beck hitting four winners off Tim’s serve. Tim eventually only just lost the match but should not be at all concerned or worried as he has wisely saved his energy reserves for Wimbledon.

As always the draw has a big say in the outcome of any event. Tim should be seeded in the top four making his route to the semi-finals theoretically easier and allowing other good players to knock each other out along the way. That said there will be players he will be hoping to avoid along the way, namely Lleyton Hewitt whom he has never beaten, but should he play Hewitt he should now be confident of winning. If he surpasses his previous best semi-final showings will nerves play a part? Andy Roddick has the world’s fastest serve. If he serves "out of a mountain" as he did at Queen’s Club can anyone beat Roddick? How will the World No.1 and defending Champion Federer get along?

If your chosen player appears to be playing poorly in the early rounds of Wimbledon, don’t worry. As long as he or she keeps winning, they may just be playing a very clever game in trying to time their peak at the right time. If that time begins the second week of Wimbledon, Monday 28 June 2004 then expect to go close!

AuBri’s prediction: With home advantage and support - TIM TO WIN!

The opinions expressed by contributors to this newsletter do not necessarily reflect the views of Bet Exchange News

Editors note

Wimbledon is likely to create lots of arbitrage opportunities between the UK exchanges and the European orientated betting exchanges including betsson, betonbet and mybet. Also keep a close eye on tradbetx which could offer excellent opportunities especially whenever an American is playing and especially in running.