Bet Exchange News - Aug 2004
By Tom Millard
Getting started
I was never exposed to betting as a child. Most kids grow up with the idea that turf accountant offices are places for people to fritter away their dole money (or maybe that's just round here), and consequently my experiences during adolescence were limited to a pound each-way in the National by way of an uncle happy to disregard the unwritten rule among 'respectable' people that betting is for mavericks and losers. Despite this, I'd had a fascination for gambling, albeit of a more conventional nature - as a child I worryingly found myself building up imaginary share portfolios, watching the news and predicting stock market fluctuations based on current affairs bulletins and esoteric financial magazines. If my parents thought me a little strange, they hid it well - it'll pass, they thought. Sure enough it did, a fortnight spent on work experience at a stockbrokers as a 16 year old was the most boring of my life and that was the end of that dream.
I'd always been adept at arithmetic and perhaps other areas of mathematics, although I wouldn't describe myself as particularly naturally gifted, perhaps just the best of a very mediocre bunch at school. The urge to join the glue-sniffers and petty arsonists was just about resisted and I spent much of my youth reading books, from Enid Blyton to Stephen Hawking. In the end I fluked a handful of GCSEs and procrastinated my way through college, abusing the education system to rack up enough A-Level points to embark upon an economics degree at Lancaster, one which I swiftly changed to politics after realising they would require me to do some work.
After drinking as much beer as I could in three years at university (3,500 pints I once worked out), I was thrown back into the big wide world and before I knew it I was wearing a red Asda T-shirt three sizes too small for me, being asked to reach the Glenfiddich by senile dipsomaniacs. The early dreams of becoming a racing driver had gone the same way as my dignity and I had to move on. Struggling for cash, I moved down to the gold-paved streets of north-west London for a year, at which point an internet connection sparked an interest in football punting. Working from a 486 from the Stone Age that my dad had rescued from a skip at work, I deposited a few quid into online accounts at Laddies and Hills, and I was on my merry way. I spent plenty of time downloading stats from websites to aid in my search for value, quickly developed a 'feel' for a solid bet and soon spread my meagre corn around a handful of other accounts.
The most profitable bets at the time were backing low goals and draws in Liverpool's away matches in their UEFA Cup run in 2000/1, a trend which continued into the following Champions League campaign. Gerard Houllier had made his gameplan perfectly clear and it worked a treat against strong opponents such as Roma, Barcelona and Galatasaray. I also did well with first goalscorers and correct score perms, and used to keenly tune in to Radio 5 after my visits to the chippy on a Saturday lunchtime in order to back the third-choice striker that would be given a game, or the goalscoring midfielder who was returning from injury to the starting line-up. Gary McAllister, Danny Murphy and Lee Bowyer were all at the top of my Christmas card list, while at one point even Roy Keane was spared my standard vitriolic armchair abuse after hitting goalscoring form at the end of 1999.
Whilst the betting was going fine, I couldn't say the same about my professional life. After a couple of very dissatisfying jobs engaged in shuffling paper and bureaucratic time wasting, I decided a different approach was required and I decided to take a course in IT, aided by a chunky government assisted training loan. I felt like I was signing my life away, trying to carve out a career in something that I disliked. However, my research was yielding increasingly respectable returns at the bookies, and the summer of 2000 was the first time that the possibility of punting full-time crossed my mind. Naturally if I mentioned this thought to any of my friends I was inevitably met with a guffaw and a cynical remark involving the term 'mug's game'. But I persevered and after moving back up to Yorkshire to take a poorly paid, frighteningly boring first line support role, I was able to devote a little more time to betting (kipping for a solid six hours during the nightshifts was a bonus).
Discovering the merits of flutter.com, iwageru.co.uk and eventually Betfair finally convinced me that I could have a future of some sort in the industry. At the time, no one knew if the idea would take off, but as their popularity increased, firstly on Flutter and then on Betfair , it was clear that the advent of betting exchanges was a huge watershed in the gambling industry. It took less time than I imagined to get used to the decimal odds interface on Betfair, and being able to close off bets if the team news was not as expected or lock in a profit if the price moved the right way, was something that appealed to all shrewd punters. As the markets increased in number and in liquidity, it was clear that it was only a matter of time before I would be turning over serious money, effectively playing the bookie.
Getting the break
By the summer of 2001 I was earning more money punting than I was being paid for my somnolent activities at work, so it was just a matter of when, not if, I took the plunge. I knew I had to build up a sizeable 'cushion' to do it justice, but didn't quite have the self-belief to go in with both feet at that time, after all, it is a mug's game isn't it? Around that time, I was seeing a girl who, as a lawyer, earned far more money than she could spend and after witnessing my success with football and motor racing betting, she allowed me to invest some of her money alongside my own. Buoyed by her confidence in me, we managed to make around five figures in a couple of months, most of which she gave to me before unceremoniously chucking me and emigrating to France .
Despite that setback, it illustrated to me that it was possible to get one over on the bookies with serious discipline and selectivity. After opening correspondence with the editor of an online betting magazine, I managed to get a job as a tipster, which was exactly what was needed at that time - using my strengths but in a controlled environment, and learning from established experts in a wide variety of sports. Those 16 months were crucial for me in gaining a fuller understanding of value, developing my instinct for spotting value bets, and using the time I had efficiently rather than going down blind alleys in the hope of uncovering an unlikely gem. One thing that gave me huge confidence was that I was more than holding my own in such elevated and knowledgeable company. In fact I came top of the in house tipsters league in both calendar years I was employed there.
I was also able to conduct research 'on the job', watching every live football game and exploring betting in-running. Being able to interview people directly involved in top-line sport was also useful for developing a sense of perspective and improving my confidence, while the news wires were also useful for trades based on early team news.
Looking back, I was frighteningly naive in some of the bets I placed when I first started out - doing research inaccurately or using inappropriate data, ignoring statistics which were clearly relevant, and perhaps rushing in before considering all aspects of the bet. However, an inevitable shaky period or two aside, I managed to keep my overall bank growing at a reasonable rate. As is inevitable, more and more bookies started limiting my internet accounts, so I had to enlist the help of friends to get bets on, opening telephone accounts, and dealing with the exchanges more and more. It is a shame that bookies now seem increasingly reluctant to stand a decent amount of money when their compilers are paid handsomely to get it right.
Taking the leap
In June last year I eventually decided to quit the 9-5 and take up punting full-time; however I maintained a good relationship with my former employer and they asked to retain my services as a freelance betting copy writer. I was happy to oblige as it kept my hand in and enabled me to maintain some balance in my life. I am also now involved in a spot of consultant odds compiling for an internet betting firm, which has proved useful in seeing the industry from the other side of the fence. It is much easier to pick off value prices as a punter than it is to come up with entire markets, even if the margins are on your side as a layer.
So the big question. Is it working out financially? The answer is a qualified 'yes'. At present I am earning considerably more from betting than I was from my old day job, but I don't want to play this up too much because it can change very quickly. My worst scare since going full-time occurred last autumn when I went through a terrible run that decimated the bank I had worked so hard to build up over the previous two years. For no apparent reason I suffered a string of losing bets over a six-week period that seriously tested my resolve. I asked myself several soul-searching questions about whether I was really cut out for this game, whether I had just been lucky in the last few months to have built up my bank and whether I should simply stop deluding myself that it's possible to make long-term profits. Eventually, after cutting my stakes in proportion to my bank, I managed to get through the worst of it and eventually clawed back the losses. I am absolutely convinced that the shaky period was simply a run of bad luck, I have analysed every bet I struck and I am certain that my approach did not change. I still scare myself when I look back over that period, but the positive I can take from it is that if I had started chasing my losses I would have got into some serious trouble, something from which I would have probably never recovered. By maintaining my discipline and composure I was able to plough through the worst of it and slowly recover my losses.
Whilst it would not suit everyone, I do enjoy my new lifestyle. It was always a pain in the backside to get up at 7.00am every morning and battle through the traffic. My job was bloody hard work as well and if I'm honest, most of the time it wasn't particularly enjoyable. I'm happy in my own company and love to meet up with the lads for a few beers sometimes, but aside from the banter I never really miss working.
The downside is that although I can be more flexible with my working time, the old social life hasn't exactly come on leaps and bounds since leaving my city-centre job. Revealing at a party that you are a professional gambler elicits a similar reaction to telling someone you have just run over their cat. I can't really blame full-time punting for my shameful lack of success with women - that would be more down to the fact that I look like a cross between Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Dougie Howser, but it hasn't exactly helped. There's a bit of a hole in my personal life that's just crying out to be filled with a regular game of squash, or a spot of friendly dogging, perhaps.
My approach
Possibly the most difficult thing about concentrating on betting to the exclusion of all other events is coping with the phenomenon of Parkinson's Law which is the maxim that states that "work expands to fill the time available for its completion." Having said that I prefer to think along the lines of "if you love what you do you'll never work another day in your life." I do enjoy what I do, but I have to admit that I enjoy it more when I'm winning than when I'm losing. Whilst this may sound obvious please bear with me, there is a serious point here.
Having what I would consider to be something of an addictive personality, I feel it is important to harness the bet in a positive rather than a negative way. Rather than getting a buzz from winning a bet and therefore by definition a downer when I lose, I aim to get my buzz from having found the value bet in the first place. By making the result immaterial from an emotional point of view, it protects me from the highs and lows of betting. Thats the theory. In reality its hard not to get a little bit upset when Jarno Trulli lets through Rubens Barrichello on the last bend of the French Grand Prix and loses a certain podium finish!
Having a dispassionate and objective approach to your betting is essential if you are going to maintain your discipline. Discipline is the single most important attribute you need if you intend to make long term gambling profits. Even if the most experienced and successful gambler claimed that he had perfect discipline and never wavered when looking at the racecard or down that weekend's lines, I would find it hard to believe. Personally I find it tough to close out for a loss if things are going against me, I have to convince myself to trade out rather than stick with my existing book and hope for the best. I also need to learn to accept a loss on the chin without feeling frustrated about it for days afterwards.
So could anyone become a professional gambler? The answer to that is an emphatic 'no'. Ignore all those threads on Betfair telling you that its easy, it certainly isn't. The first step to becoming a successful full time gambler is to be a successful part time gambler. All of the professional gamblers I know took the plunge when their winnings were outstripping their salary from their main job, making the decision much easier. I am personally unaware of any losing gambler who turned his fortunes around by taking it up full time. The other thing you need behind you is a very solid bank. I have heard some horror stories about people getting into trouble with loans in the pursuit of gambling winnings and it's imperative that you only bet what you can afford to lose.
You also need to know yourself and know your strengths and weaknesses. Although judging 'value' is by definition subjective, it is possible to have a feel for a more accurate reflection of this than other people, which is of course essential on the exchanges. Personally I still base most of my bets on instinct, it is the experience gained from thousands of previous wagers that can allow you to have a better feel for potential value - the more you practice, the more accurately and more quickly you can judge, and the less mistakes you will make. This is where I believe I have my edge. I have however, sometimes made snap decisions which I end up regretting, especially in-running, when I have a tendency to act on my nerves, rushing in without carefully considering the situation. I admire those who can react quickly and are in full control under pressure; it's something which would take a lot of time and effort for me. I prefer to play with smaller stakes in-running, or snatch some value to trade with just after the market has reopened following a goal. Professional gambling is about understanding your strengths and weaknesses and betting accordingly.
My top ten rules
The following list has been invaluable for me, I hope you find it useful regardless of the level you are betting at.
1. Be disciplined. The key is to rate any potential wager in value terms and only strike a bet if you are convinced that you have an advantage over the bookie or exchange adversary. If, having taken a metaphorical step back, you are not completely convinced that the bet would net you a profit if you placed it a hundred times, then walk away. Never bet for the sake of it, or 'to have an interest' in a match unless you are prepared to lose in the long-term.
2. Stick to a rigid staking plan. It is easy to come unstuck if you allow your stakes to spiral out of control. Even if each bet you pick is excellent value, exceeding a certain proportion of your bank is very dangerous and you can be wiped out by unforeseen circumstances. I never place more than 10% of my bank on any event - normally sticking to 2-3%. Staking a bigger proportion of your betting bank for the best value bets is a good idea, but make sure you have an upper limit. Never chase losses. It is much more sensible to quit while you're behind than chasing with poor value, hastily thought-out wagers.
3. Trust your instinct if you have been successful in the past. After all that is what got you into this position in the first place. It can often be the case that you question yourself, if on a bad run for example but I think it is vital you keep your approach consistent, ignoring any recent good or bad runs as each bet is considered. It is, after all, a game of chance - some you win and some you lose, and good and bad runs do occur.
4. Research thoroughly. The more you look into a subject, the better balanced your view will be and the more accurate your perception will be. It will be virtually impossible to overcome a bookies' margin or net a long-term profit on the exchanges without delving deeper than those you are playing against. Be open-minded and listen to all viewpoints but treat with caution.
5. Do not blindly trust betting systems. Any 'system' is only as good as the bets within it, and those blindly following a set pattern will come unstuck at some point unless each bet within the system is inherently good value.
6. Get an edge. If you are betting on football, the earlier you can get hold of vital team news the more money you can make, even just for trading or arbing. If star players are rested, the market will move. Also react quickly to the announcements of the line-ups on match days to take advantage of generous goalscorer prices.
7. Never allow short-term luck to affect your decisions. It is often easy to feel invincible when on the crest of a profitable wave or depressed after a run of losers, but ensure that your judgement is not affected by recent results. Remember that just because a bet lost, it doesn't mean it was poor value.
8. Get a feel for a 100 per cent book. Play about on Betfair until you are able to price up the possible outcomes to roughly 100 per cent. Having this ability makes pricing up events in your head much more quickly and allows you to spot value more easily.
9. Always keep detailed accounts. It's crucial to write down all your bets and their respective profits and losses. At the end of the month I always look back on my wagers to see which ones I would not place again given the same circumstances. I was convinced I had an edge on the over/under 2.5 goals markets until I realised that, after commission, my profit over six months was negligible - certainly not enough to reward the painstaking statistics I had kept for all major European leagues!
10. Enjoy it. Take the rough with the smooth and learn how to lose with dignity. (If anyone achieves this, please let me know how you managed it....)
Tom Millard
tom@tdmillard.freeserve.co.uk