Message from the editor

Bet Exchange News - Aug 2004

Hi folks. Apologies for the lateness of this newsletter, we have suffered a family bereavement which has meant the newsletter taking a back seat for a week or two. It should be back on track next month. As a result there are one or two articles I had planned for this month which will now appear in the September issue, but hopefully there is still enough to keep you interested.

Winners and losers in the betting revolution

Bet Exchange News exists to help you to maximise your opportunities and minimise your risks in the betting exchange revolution. Betting exchanges have created the possibility of gambling profits for everyone who approaches their betting in a disciplined, structured and selective way. However for every winner there has to be a loser, and in this issue we see both sides of the coin. Firstly I'm delighted to introduce Tom Millard to my team of writers. Tom is a professional sports trader, a motorsports odds consultant to a national bookmaker and a well respected writer with contributions to www.bettingzone.co.uk and Racing and Football Outlook. His thoughtful and revealing story gives an insight into the effort and skills required to not only achieve gambling profits, but to actually make enough to live off.

The other side of the coin is Ster, a well known and seemingly popular poster on the Betfair forum. He discovered a reliable way of making good money on Betfair with relatively little effort. He left his job to do this full time and did very well. However, he spent all his money on a fabulous holiday and upon his return borrowed heavily on his credit cards to get going again. The problem was that other people had also cottoned on to 'his' system and by the time he returned from his extended break the opportunity had all but disappeared. Rather than accepting that the party was over and going back to a proper job, or working flat out to find another niche, Ster persevered in trying to make his old system work, but in doing so he was taking more and more risks and in the end was no more than a gambler. Like the vast majority of gamblers he ended up losing. Ster's losses and debts built up to the point where all his credit cards were full and he had nowhere left to hide. His farewell letter to his forum friends appears in full along with a couple of thoughtful and wise replies.

If you are thinking of going professional you need to honestly ask yourself what your edge is? What is it that stands you head and shoulders above all the other people trying to make money from exchange betting? If you approach things in the right way, making a few quid from exchange betting is easy, but making a full time living from it is a different matter. It is important to understand that past or present success is absolutely no guarantee of future success. Exchange betting is still relatively new and things are changing constantly - there is every chance that what works today may not work tomorrow. If you are considering going full time I strongly urge you to read both of these features in this issue and also to read the quote from Troy McClure in the April issue of Bet Exchange News. Finally you may wish to have another read of Clydebank29's article in the May issue. All back issues of Bet Exchange News can be read free of charge in the archive section on the website.

I send my best wishes to Ster and to anyone else who find themselves in his position. I hope that by reading his story here others will avoid the same fate.

Also in this issue

Cubone continues his life story, talking us through the early days of the High Street Betting Office revolution. The Mercury Music Prize nominations have been announced so I thought I would share my experiences from last year with you. Finally we have a useful article from the Racing Post which looks at some techniques you can use to improve your chances on betting exchanges.

My month

I hope you've had a good month. June was my most profitable month so far thanks to Euro2004. Anyone who followed my advice and combined the European and the UK betting exchanges will have done very well. I found that Betonbet was particularly good for in running arbs and I made good money in almost every match. The one match I came unstuck in was France 's second match against the Czech Republic . France were 1-0 up and I spotted an arb, due to a great value back bet on France on Betonbet . Unfortunately before I had the chance to lay it off the Czechs equalised and then soon after that they took the lead, leaving my 1.20 bet on France to win looking very sickly! With some more trading and arbing I did manage to repair some of the damage, but in the end lost over £100 on that match. I also had a near miss in the semi final between Greece and the Czechs. I had done pretty well with the 90 minute market, but was then looking to bet in running in extra time. I ended up trading between Betdaq and Betonbet , and was astonished at the difference in prices between the two markets. It was only as we got to the end of the first half of extra time that I realised why. Betonbet 's market was only for the first half of extra time, whereas Betdaq 's market was for the whole of extra time! No wonder Betonbet 's price for the draw was so much shorter than Betdaq 's. When Greece scored right at the end of the first period to go through to the final they saved me £300. A close escape, and a good reminder that you need to be 100% confident that you are sure of what you are betting on.

The other event that has kept me very busy is Big Brother. This has been described as the Special Betting's equivalent of the Marathon . How right the person who said that was. During this series I have had the computer switched on 18 hours a day constantly checking the market and forum boards for developments. The price movements have been absolutely staggering enabling successful traders to build up very healthy positions. Barring an absolute disaster this will be my best event by a mile, although I must say that I have worked for it. The one downside is that we have not been able to maximise our opportunities from the eviction markets as Betfair stopped offering eviction markets early in the programme. The Betfair rules left room for interpretation in the event of a contestant being disqualified which is what happened with Emma. Betfair settled this as the official 2nd eviction prompting those who didn't like their decision to complain to IBAS. Betfair's response to this was to stop offering the market. Fortunately sportingoptions seemed to have no problems drafting rules with which they were comfortable and they, along with most bookies have offered markets on every eviction since. The only problem is that levels of liquidity are not up to those on Betfair, so we could do with a few more people to get this market going. So, see you at the orange site!

This amazing betting event comes to an end on August 6th, my holiday starts on August 7th. Can't wait. Have a good month, enjoy the newsletter and I'll speak to you soon.

Best regards

Mike

Mike Cooksedge

Editor