20th August 2001 - issue 6

As well as enjoying some great successes in my bookie free betting I have suffered the occasional set back. What happened to me during the German Grand Prix Qualifying sessions was undoubtedly the single biggest set back I have had so far, and is a salutary lesson to us all of the need to remain focused and disciplined at all times. I am going to tell you about it in detail, because there are a number of mistakes that you really need to avoid to achieve your goal of long term profits. To give a little background, over the past two or three months I have been betting to a very focussed and specific plan, which has seen my profits grow steadily and consistently. I consider that I have done this with minimal risk and went into the German Grand Prix fully expecting to continue this trend.

Upon checking the early prices I saw that Michael Schumacher was being offered at 2.1 on Betfair for pole position. I knew that Michael had been on pole for 8 out of 11 races. I had noticed in the past that Michael's odds on pole tended to get shorter as the qualifying sessions started, and this seemed to be incredibly good value. I felt that the market at this early stage had completely over reacted to Michael's failure to win the British Grand Prix and that as the race got nearer this would be corrected, which would enable me to get a guaranteed profit. I immediately accepted the £200 on offer and thought I would really push my luck and see if anyone would give me 2.25 on a further £200. When I checked the next night I found the bet had been accepted, and the best odds that were available were at 2.05. The odds were going down, therefore my plan was working. Finally I put up another bet of £150 at 2.3, not really expecting it to be accepted but of course it was.

At this point I had no concerns, I had staked £550 but I had no intention of actually betting that much on Michael. I expected to lay the whole of the bet at 2.0 or lower which would have effectively given me a free bet on Michael resulting in £120 profit if he had won. The "risk" that I felt I was taking was that at worst I may have to lay the bet at the odds I had placed them, or slightly worse. However on Saturday morning to my surprise, the odds started at 2.4 which, rather than a profit, meant a loss of £105, which I was not at that stage prepared to accept, still being convinced that the odds would come down. I then had to go out and I got back thirty minutes before the start. By now I was getting concerned, the odds had lengthened even further, I was looking at a guaranteed loss of £150+.

At this point I should have followed my "game plan", bitten the bullet and accepted the loss, putting it down to experience. The problem was that I had never been in this situation before and until I found myself in the situation I had no idea how difficult it would be to accept such a loss. What made it even worse, was as I procrastinated, hoping the odds would turn the odds lengthened even further, which made it even more difficult financially and psychologically to lay the bet and accept my losses. At every new level I felt that the odds must have peaked and were about to turn around again. My fear was that as soon as I layed the bet that the market would finally turn around and I would be left kicking myself.

Suddenly I had run out of time and the session had started. My only chance now was to bet in running on Betfair. Throughout the morning I had seen the in running betting on Betfair as my final safety net. In all the qualifying sessions I can remember Michael led at some stage, even if he did not end up on pole. Whether he won or not there was bound to be some time during qualifying when Michael was leading, which would shorten his odds considerably. This would be my chance to lay him, perhaps even at a profit, although this had ceased to be my target by now. Unfortunately for me Ralf Schumacher came straight out and drove a phenomenal lap. In Michael's first lap he was nearly a second behind him, with no sign of closing the gap. For the first time the reality set in that I was going to lose a lot of money, and I suppose that I panicked. I tried to reduce my losses by backing Ralf who was looking a dead cert, unfortunately Montaya put in an even better lap and my bet was accepted before I had a chance to cancel it, making a bad situation worse.

I did have other bets on Betfair, Flutter and Play121 which counteracted some of the loss, but I was still over £600 down. So where did I go wrong? Below I list all the mistakes which culminated in this situation. By analysing them it ensures that I will never find myself in this situation again and it gives you the opportunity to make sure that you never fall into the same traps.

1. Understand the worst possible scenario

Because of my intention to lay this bet I did not really acknowledge that I had exposed myself to losses of £550. Clearly I was kidding myself. My exposure to this bet was five times what I would normally have considered acceptable. Controlling your stakes is a basic rule that you ignore at your peril. Nearly all my setbacks have occurred when I have jumped at what appeared to be exceptional opportunities and placed bets well in excess of my limit. Personal experience has shown that these have rarely worked out for me, and have wiped out enormous amounts of good work.

2. Develop an exit strategy

Looking back, in the cold light of day it is clear that I had no coherent exit strategy. I had told myself that if the odds went down I would accept a loss, but I had no idea at what point I would take this loss. When faced with the need to do this, I kept putting it off in the hope that the price would go down. If I had given myself a time limit, or if I had specified a price point at which I would accept my losses, these would have been acceptable. Before you put yourself in a situation that you may have to accept a loss ask yourself seriously whether you can afford to take the loss and whether you would have the mental strength to accept the loss if you had to. If you are not completely sure the answer is probably no, in which case you should not put yourself in the situation.

3. Don't rely on the in running betting to put it right

On this event there were few people betting in running, and the bet sizes were pretty small, when the bets I needed to lay were large. To expect to lay your bets off in running is an extremely dangerous strategy which you cannot rely on. In future I will ensure that I have "balanced my books" to a satisfactory state, before the event starts. I will still bet in running because, this can offer great opportunities, however I will be treating the in running as a separate event, and will not be not be seeking to even out earlier bets.

4. Research is not a substitute for discipline

Research can be a very useful tool and used in the right way on the right bets will pay dividends in the long run. The danger is when you become over reliant on this technique and bet too much in the belief that you are reading an event better then the market. This is especially dangerous with bookie free betting because you do not know the quality of information in the possession of your opponent. In this case I may even have been betting against one of the mechanics in the Williams team, who knows? For my part my research was pretty patchy, being based on my observations of price movements in previous races. I had no information about the specific conditions relating to this race. Under the circumstances, rather than trying to out think the market I should have stuck to my usual strategy of working the margins of the spread to make small but risk free profits. Instead, I used my relatively limited experience to decide that the Schumacher odds were too long, and I staked far too much on this premise.

5. Things can only get better...

Never believe this. However bad things seem they can always get worse. Past losses do not make future winnings any more likely, if anything they make them less likely as there is the danger that you may lose your discipline and start betting in an increasingly desperate and irrational way as you chase your losses. Discipline is a key factor at all times in bookie free betting, but in times of crisis it is absolutely critical. Without it you could easily turn a bad situation into a complete disaster. My advice is that if you find yourself in a negative situation, accept this as a new base line and then continue, using proven safe techniques, only exposing yourself to additional risks within your acceptable limits. Unless you are 100% confident that you can continue betting on the event in a completely disciplined manner the safest course of action is to walk away from the event and live to fight another day.

6. Avoid complacency

Just as you need to maintain your discipline in a crisis, you also need to maintain it when things are going well. After an unbroken winning run of over two months I was over confident and starting to feel I could not put a foot wrong. This complacency resulted in me betting in a way that I would not have previously considered. As you enjoy success you may be tempted to invest some of your winnings in bigger bets. I feel this is a valid strategy. As your bank grows your bets may grow proportionately as this gives you the opportunity of amassing serious amounts of money in the long run. However, always ensure that you keep your stakes to an acceptable percentage of your bank. Those profits which built up steadily can vanish very quickly.

7. If you don't have enough time to bet properly don't do it at all

If you are in a rush or you are being distracted, mistakes or lapses in judgement become far more likely. My advice is not to get heavily involved in an event unless you are able to give it your full attention at the crucial times. On the Saturday morning concerned I had all sorts of family and household commitments which meant I only allowed myself half an hour before the qualifying session to try to balance my books, and even then I was regularly distracted which prevented me from giving it my full attention. Sometimes you can get away with nipping in and out of the sites, but if you are serious about bookie free betting you really need to give it your full attention when required.

8. In conclusion

In these newsletters I have outlined techniques which will enable you to bet profitably on these sites. These techniques work. If you stick to them to the letter and accept that progress will be steady rather than spectacular you will see your profits start to mount up. However, if you make a mistake or lose your discipline there will be no end of opponents ready and willing to take advantage, and you could see your hard won profits slip away in a moment. If you are a careless sort of person with a tendency to regularly make mistakes, or if you are an undisciplined person who is easily tempted or swayed then you should seriously question whether bookie free betting is for you.