Bookie Free News issue 4 - 27th April 2001
The really successful bookie free bettors will be those who maximise their statistical advantage by combining bets from the different sites in such a way to maximise their profits and minimise their losses. With careful thought this enables you to customise your bet to suit almost any scenario your research indicates. At the San Marino Grand Prix like many people I felt that Michael Schumacher would win the race, which was reflected before qualifying in available odds of around 1.90. Looking at Schumacher's record over the past two seasons on www.f1fanatics.com I found firstly that he tends to win more than half the races he starts. Failing that he will normally come second, or fail to finish. It is rare for him to finish in the points any lower than this. Combining Play121 and Betfair I put together a combination of bets which reflected this record perfectly, maximising my potential profits while minimising my risk.
a) On Betfair's range betting I bought Schumacher's points at 6.2 at £10 a point
b) On Play121 I asked for and received odds of 8-1 on £10 that he would finish outside the top 10.
Driver's position |
Points |
Bet a) |
Bet b) |
Net loss/winnings |
1st |
10(21) |
+£36 |
-£10 |
+£26 |
2nd |
6(7) |
-£ 2 |
-£10 |
-£12 |
3rd |
4(2) |
-£22 |
-£10 |
-£32 |
4th |
3(0) |
-£32 |
-£10 |
-£42 |
5th |
2(2) |
-£42 |
-£10 |
-£52 |
6th |
1(0) |
-£52 |
-£10 |
-£62 |
7th |
0(1) |
-£62 |
-£10 |
-£72 |
11th or worse |
0 (6) |
-£62 |
+£78 |
+£16 |
The figures in brackets refer to the number of times Schumacher has had this result since the start of the 1999 season. Winnings in this example have had commission deducted.
The above shows that Michael generally comes first or second, or fails to finish. There is no real half way house for him. Therefore, statistically there are only three outcomes worth considering, he either wins, comes second or fails to finish. If I had backed Schumacher to win £28 at evens I would have lost the whole £28 if he had come anywhere other than 1st. Compared with this I am showing a loss of just £12 if he comes second and an actual profit of £14 if he fails to finish. The trade off is much heavier losses if he finishes between 4th and 10th, but experience shows that this is very unlikely and is a risk I am happy to take.
The huge combination of bets available on F1 makes this a particularly rich area for bets of this nature, but whatever sport you are interested in you will be able to use the wealth of statistics available across the net along with incredible combination of bets across the various bookie free sites to create your own perfect bet.
A word of warning though, do not assume that all both sides of your bet will definitely be accepted.
If you offer to bet £1000 on both bets you could find yourself over exposed if only one of the bets is accepted. When offering your bets you must consider the effect if only one side of the bet is accepted and you lose it. If you are comfortable with the worst case scenario go for it and good luck.